On April 1, 2026, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its forecast for the global economy against the backdrop of the US and Israeli military confrontation with Iran. According to a report published by Bloomberg, the conflict has triggered a large asymmetric shock that has hit developing countries hardest — those that had not yet recovered from previous crises.

The greatest difficulties are being faced by countries in Africa and Asia that are critically dependent on hydrocarbon imports. Supply disruptions and rising prices are depriving these regions of access to energy resources even when they are willing to pay a supramarket premium. The IMF allows for the possibility that the global system may move into a “transitional” state — a prolonged period of expensive energy and persistently high inflation that will be extremely difficult to control with standard monetary policy measures.

The crisis has spread beyond the energy sector, affecting food and fertilizer markets from the Middle East to Latin America. Shortages of agricultural inputs pose a direct threat to social stability in low‑income countries. As the fund’s analysts emphasize, “any spike in food prices becomes not only an economic but also a socio‑political problem in the context of constrained fiscal resources.”

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has confirmed that the previous global order has undergone irreversible change. The global trading system faces unprecedented uncertainty caused not only by military actions but also by the impact of US tariffs. A return to the previous status quo is regarded as impossible in the current geopolitical environment.