Global energy prices may reach $150 per barrel if navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked within the coming month. This prediction was made on April 1, 2026, by Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan's chief economist. He estimates that the ongoing transportation isolation of the Persian Gulf could lead to a critical supply shortage and forced consumption restrictions for major industrial enterprises.

Analysts at Citigroup are considering even more drastic scenarios for the Middle Eastern crisis. They assign a 30% probability to the benchmark Brent crude rising to $150. However, if large-scale attacks on Iranian infrastructure occur or the blockade extends until June 2026, oil prices could soar to $200. Experts from the bank emphasize that investors are pricing in the risk of the conflict expanding geographically and damaging major refining hubs.

Saudi Arabia's national energy company, Saudi Aramco, has also revised its short-term expectations. According to analysts at the Saudi giant, prolonged closure of the waterway by Tehran could push prices to $180 by late April. While oil prices did not reach the previously predicted $138–140 by the end of March, volatility remains extremely high due to uncertainty surrounding the resumption of safe shipping.

The current situation in the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global hydrocarbon supplies flow, remains a key destabilizing factor for the global economy. Bruce Kasman of JPMorgan points out that each additional day of tanker fleet downtime increases inflationary pressure and depletes strategic reserves of importing countries. The market is awaiting official decisions from the governments of leading countries regarding measures to ensure the security of trade routes to prevent an energy collapse.