The wave structure has turned bullish, as the market has begun to believe in the possibility of an agreement between Iran and the United States. The most recently completed downward wave failed to break the previous low, while the new upward wave exceeded the previous peak. If an agreement is signed before the end of the week and neither side violates the ceasefire or withdraws from negotiations, the bulls may continue their offensive. However, at present, their momentum appears weak and unconvincing.

The news background on Monday was fairly limited apart from geopolitical developments. In the United States, the industrial production report was released but failed to deliver the result traders had hoped for. Earlier in the day, it became known that an agreement between Iran and the United States could be reached as early as Friday. However, according to experts, full restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely in the near term. In addition, the agreement between Iran and the United States does not take Israel's interests into account, while the nuclear issue remains unresolved. In my view, the agreement between Iran and the United States appears somewhat formal and has limited practical impact. The Strait of Hormuz may reopen, but safe navigation through it is unlikely to be fully restored anytime soon, while rebuilding the region's damaged oil and gas infrastructure will take months. A preliminary agreement may be signed, but it does not resolve the nuclear issue that triggered the conflict in the first place. Iran and the United States may end hostilities, but what about the conflict between Lebanon and Israel? Therefore, too many questions remain unanswered. Traders doubt that a lasting peace between Iran and the United States—and in the Middle East as a whole—is achievable.

On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair rebounded from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3327 and advanced toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3429. A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and lead to a moderate decline toward 1.3327. Consolidation above 1.3429 would increase the likelihood of a continued rise in the British pound. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Sentiment among the Non-commercial category of traders became more bearish during the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 7,944, while the number of short positions increased by 4,051. The gap between long and short positions now stands at approximately 46,000 versus 109,000. Bears have dominated in recent months, which is unsurprising given the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the political crisis in the United Kingdom. The bears' advantage currently exceeds a two-to-one ratio.

I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, but in the near term, everything will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market had adjusted to expectations of a prolonged conflict, but recent developments suggest that a ceasefire may still be achieved, although the process is unlikely to be quick or straightforward.

News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• U.S. – Building Permits (12:30 UTC).
• U.S. – Housing Starts (12:30 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 16 contains only one event that I do not consider significant. The impact of the economic background on market sentiment on Tuesday is expected to be absent or extremely limited.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Short positions were possible following a rebound from the 1.3454–1.3466 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3408 and 1.3349–1.3355. The first target has been reached, and these positions may be held with the second target in view. Long positions may be considered today if the pair closes above 1.3408, with targets at 1.3454–1.3466 and 1.3526–1.3539.

Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the hourly chart and from 1.3866 to 1.3158 on the 4-hour chart.