Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Several macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Wednesday, June 3. If we set aside all secondary data that will undoubtedly be ignored by the market, the key reports left are the ADP and ISM reports from the US. The first report concerns the labor market, showing the number of private-sector jobs. The second is the services sector activity index. Despite the importance of these reports, we have no confidence that the market will even notice them. Traders continue to wait for a geopolitical resolution that clearly indicates what to expect in the near future in the Middle East.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Wednesday, noteworthy speeches will be made by Michael Barr and Lori Logan from the Federal Reserve, as well as Piero Cipollone and Frank Elderson from the European Central Bank. Remember that only the ECB can change its key rate at the next meeting. Currently, there is no certainty on this, as a rate hike would place additional pressure on the European economy, which is already slowing due to rising energy prices. Therefore, the speeches from ECB representatives are interesting but have little impact on the euro since the market remains fully focused on geopolitics.

The geopolitical backdrop continues to be troubling, as Iran and the US have once again moved closer to resuming conflict and failing negotiations. Talks between Washington and Tehran are ongoing and, according to the US president, are "very successful." However, no confirmations of diplomatic success have come from Iran. The parties regularly violate the terms of the ceasefire, and this week, Tehran even declared its intention to cease all diplomatic contacts with Washington.

General Conclusions:

During the third trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade relatively weakly unless new messages emerge concerning the conflict and ceasefire in the Middle East. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1655-1.1666, while the British pound can be traded in the range of 1.3456-1.3476. Geopolitics remains the key influencing factor in the currency market.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is evaluated based on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be overlooked.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to success in trading over the long term.