Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the price level 1.1605 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by more than 30 points.

The downward revision of European economic growth figures for the 4th quarter of 2025 put significant pressure on the euro, causing it to fall. The worsening growth indicators currently raise questions, as there is still no clear trend of a sharp slowdown in GDP recovery. However, economists and traders will now pay closer attention to this indicator.

Important data from the U.S. labor market is expected in the second half of the day. One of the first indicators to be released is the change in non-farm payrolls (NFP). The NFP indicator is traditionally considered one of the most significant measures of the economy's condition, showing how actively new jobs are being created across various industries. Rising employment and falling unemployment would quickly restore demand for the U.S. dollar.

Any deviation from the forecast values—either positive or negative—could also trigger significant volatility and affect expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future actions.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on the implementation of Scenario No. 1 and Scenario No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible if the price reaches 1.1601 (the green line on the chart), with a target rise to 1.1650. At 1.1650, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. A strong rise in the euro today can be expected after weak U.S. statistics.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.1571 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise toward 1.1601 and 1.1650 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1571 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1526, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound from that level). Pressure on the pair will return if U.S. statistics are strong.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I will also sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.1601 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward 1.1571 and 1.1526 can then be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – entry price where you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – the estimated level where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, since further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price where you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – the estimated level where you can place Take Profit or lock in profits, since further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner traders in the Forex market should make entry decisions very carefully. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings.

If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.