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29.01.2026 01:22 PM
Federal Reserve: Economic outlook and current situation. As expected, the US central bank left its policy rate unchanged at the January meeting. Therefore, market attention focused on Jerome Powell's press conference. What did markets hear? The Fed chair said the US economy continued to grow at a steady pace in 2025, stressing that its fundamentals remain solid. At the same time, he noted that the rise in public debt follows an unsustainable trajectory and that the budget deficit is unacceptable. Powell emphasized the importance of addressing this issue promptly. Regarding future rate moves, Powell said criteria for further cuts have not yet been formulated.
At this meeting, the majority voted for a "pause" on rate changes. Although economic indicators have improved recently, inflation remains above the 2% target, largely driven by tariffs. The Fed will continue to decide on rate cuts based on incoming economic data. At the same time, current Fed policy is judged appropriate for the situation. As for prospects in 2026, the US economic situation remains acceptable.
Powell also noted that last year's rate cuts had a positive effect on the economy, making Fed policy better aligned with current conditions. However, residential real estate activity remains weak, and the effects of the government shutdown are expected to be offset already in the current quarter. Meanwhile, according to The Wall Street Journal, a partial government shutdown in the US is possible at the end of the week due to protracted budget negotiations. Democrats insist on changes to funding for the Department of Homeland Security, which Republicans are unlikely to accept.
While the US rounds up and deports undocumented immigrants, Spanish authorities have announced plans for a large?scale regularization program for migrants residing in the country without documents. Legal status will be available to foreigners who have lived in Spain for at least five months before December 31, have no criminal record, and can document their status. And the European Union, after agreements with MERCOSUR and a declaration on trade cooperation with India, continues to expand its geographic footprint.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen commented on the deal with India, saying: "We do not just trade more. We invest in each other's future. Our strengths complement each other. And our scale gives us global influence. Now with these agreements, we can scale even greater heights."
Under these arrangements, tariffs on more than 90% of goods between the parties will be eliminated. The deal also includes reductions in tariffs on European cars and agricultural products in India, while the EU will cut duties on labor?intensive Indian exports that were hit by 50% US tariffs. India is the EU's ninth?largest trading partner. In 2024, its share of total EU trade was 2.4%. The agreement promises to double Indian goods exports to the EU by 2032, strengthening economic ties.
The EU is also preparing to announce a comprehensive strategic partnership with Vietnam. The agreement will cover:
The last item is especially relevant given Vietnam's growing global role. The EU is already Vietnam's fourth?largest trading partner, and trade between the two rose by 40% after the free trade agreement in 2020.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is heading to China on the first high?level visit since 2018 to strengthen bilateral economic and political ties. The EU and UK car markets continue to expand, extending growth into a sixth consecutive month. Sales of electric and hybrid vehicles stand out, supported by new models and government incentives. Growth is also driven by competition from Chinese brands such as BYD, Geely, and Changan. In December 2025, car sales in the EU rose by 5.8%, and for the full year were up 1.8%.
Additionally, India and Canada are preparing to expand oil and gas trade. Canada is expected to increase LNG shipments to India, while India will commit to boosting refined?product supplies. The agreement will also broaden mutual investments in the energy sector. An official announcement is anticipated after the energy ministers' meeting at International Energy Week in Goa in early February 2026.
BRICS countries, which account for 42% of global GDP, are preparing to pilot their own unified payment system — Brics Pay. This is not just a technological innovation but a political move. If the project proposed by the Reserve Bank of India wins approval at the 2026 summit, the world will see the first real alternative to dollar?centric financial infrastructure in decades. The main difference between Brics Pay and the SWIFT system is the absence of a single control center. Unlike existing solutions, the new system will enable peer?to?peer exchange of central bank digital currencies among member states.
That means countries cannot be excluded from the network for political or other reasons. Importantly, Brics Pay is envisaged as a system for digital currencies:
Thus, the project will be built on new blockchain technologies, adding to its ambition and uniqueness. Four years ago, a similar initiative might have seemed fanciful. Today, it looks like a necessity driven by Western measures that use the dollar as a tool of pressure. The harder SWIFT is used as leverage, the faster alternative systems develop. Consequences of Brics Pay and historical context:
The creation of Brics Pay resembles the birth of SWIFT in 1973, which was developed as an independent instrument for international settlements, not reliant on US and Western banks. Today, the center of gravity is shifting to countries of the Global South and East — not the collapse of the old system but the beginning of its fragmentation. Ironically, despite its Western origins, SWIFT became a highly successful foreign policy tool that encouraged countries to build backup options. Over time, Brics Pay could become analogous to what SWIFT once was for telegraphic transfers, undermining the dollar and euro monopoly on the global financial stage.
Donald Trump, of course, will not remain passive and will use all political and economic levers to try to stop this process, especially regarding countries such as India, South Africa, and Brazil. However, the United States has growing domestic problems that worry markets. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said his party will vote against a bill that includes funding for the Department of Homeland Security, which could lead to a partial government shutdown. At the same time, President Trump may appoint a new Fed chair, which could also affect financial market stability.
It is no surprise that gold and silver are registering record highs almost daily. Silver has shown record volatility: at its peak, it rose 14%, notching the highest performance since 17 September 2008. That episode was a recovery from lows; comparable levels were seen only in February 1998 and earlier in 1980. Over three days, silver has gained 30.6%, and year?to?date, it is up 64.4%. This marks the best start to a year on record, at least since 1915.
The main driver of the current bullish run was short covering amid an intensified FOMO syndrome among retail investors. Silver volatility set records, becoming the highest in history and the most volatile asset apart from natural gas. Expert observations (on a 5?minute chart) showed silver volatility at roughly 400 pips. For comparison:
Thus, silver has become not only the fastest?rising asset globally in 2026 but also the most volatile.
29 January, 00:45 / New Zealand / ** / Trade balance (Dec) / prev.: -2.35bn / actual: -2.06bn / forecast: 40.0bn / NZD/USD – up
New Zealand's trade balance recorded a deficit of NZD 2.06bn in December 2025, smaller than the market's expectation and the prior -2.35bn. The improvement was driven by higher exports of dairy and meat, which offset weak imports. If the December reading comes in near the forecast of +40.0bn, it would signal a shift to surplus and provide support for the New Zealand dollar.
29 January, 03:00 / New Zealand / ** / ANZ business confidence (Dec) / prev.: 67.1 / actual: 73.6 / forecast: – / NZD/USD – volatile
ANZ's business confidence index in New Zealand jumped to 73.6 in December 2025 (a one?year high), up from 67.1 in November. The rise reflected optimism in agriculture and retail amid lower inflation and easing monetary policy. The absence of a consensus forecast suggests potential volatility for NZD/USD on the release.
29 January, 03:01 / United Kingdom / *** / Auto production (Dec) / prev.: -23.8% / actual: -14.3% / forecast: -7.6% / GBP/USD – up
UK car production in November 2025 fell by 14.3% (to 65.9k units). This marked the fourth month of decline, but the pace of contraction moderated from -23.8% previously.
Exports fell by 10.6%, while the domestic market rose by 46.9%. If the December release approaches the forecast of -7.6%, it would confirm sectoral recovery and support the pound.
29 January, 03:30 / Australia / ** / Import prices (Q4) / prev.: -0.8% / actual: -0.4% / forecast: -0.2% / AUD/USD – up
Australia's import prices fell by 0.4% in Q3 2025. This was the second consecutive quarterly decline, but it was milder than the prior -0.8%. Telecommunications equipment eased by 3.4% and machinery declined by 2.6% amid a stronger AUD. Offsetting factors included fuel (+3.5%) and fertilisers (+10.4%). If the Q4 reading is close to the -0.2% forecast, it would signal easing price pressures and provide modest support for the Australian dollar.
29 January, 08:00 / Japan / *** / Consumer confidence (Jan) / prev.: 37.5 / actual: 37.2 / forecast: 38.0 / USD/JPY – down
Japan's consumer confidence index fell to 37.2 in December 2025 — the weakest reading in 19 months, down from 37.5 in November. Deterioration was seen in:
However, incomes improved (41.3). If the January reading comes in near the 38.0 forecast, this could support the yen.
29 January, 13:00 / Eurozone / *** / Economic sentiment index (Jan) / prev.: 97.1 / actual: 96.7 / forecast: 97.0 / EUR/USD – up
The Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) fell to 96.7 in December 2025 from 97.1, below expectations but above its long?term average. Services (-5.6), retail (-6.9), and consumer sentiment (-13.1) weakened. Industry (-9.0) and construction (-1.3) improved. Inflation expectations rose. If the January release is close to the 97.0 forecast, it would back up the euro.
29 January, 13:00 / Eurozone / ** / Consumer confidence (Jan) / prev.: 24.3 / actual: 26.7 / forecast: 25.0 / EUR/USD – down
Eurozone consumer confidence rose to 26.7 in December 2025 from 24.3, exceeding the historical average of 24.48. The peak was in March 2022 (64.5), the trough in August 2009 (-6.8). If January's reading approaches the 25.0 forecast, it could weigh on the euro.
29 January, 13:00 / Eurozone / *** / Industrial sentiment (Jan) / prev.: -9.3 / actual: -9.0 / forecast: -8.1 / EUR/USD – up
The Eurozone industrial sentiment index improved to -9.0 in December 2025 from -9.3, roughly in line with expectations. Better production and orders forecasts supported the reading despite worsening inventories. Export expectations became less pessimistic. If January's release is near the -8.1 forecast, it would indicate further improvement and support the euro.
29 January, 16:30 / Canada / *** / Trade balance (Nov) / prev.: 240m / actual: -580m / forecast: -70m / USD/CAD – down
Canada's trade balance went into a deficit of CAD 0.58bn in October 2025, after a surplus of CAD 0.24bn in September — better than the -1.4bn miss. Exports rose by 2.1% (to CAD 65.61bn), driven mainly by metals (+27.3%, including gold +47.4% to the UK) and autos (+4.1%). Energy exports fell by 8.4% (oil -13.5%). Imports increased by 3.4% (to CAD 66.19bn), led by electronics (+10.2%) and metals (+9.5%). The surplus with the US narrowed to CAD 4.8bn, while the deficit with other partners fell to CAD 5.4bn (the smallest since 2021). If the November print comes in near the -70m forecast, this would signal moderate improvement and support the Canadian dollar.
29 January, 16:30 / US / *** / Trade balance (Nov) / prev.: -48.1bn / actual: -29.4bn / forecast: -40.5bn / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down
The US trade deficit narrowed to USD 29.4bn in October 2025, the smallest since 2009. The figure follows a revised -48.1bn in September and was better than the -58.1bn expectation. Tariffs caused volatility in gold and pharmaceuticals. Imports fell by 3.2% (to USD 331.4bn — a 21?month low). Declines were concentrated in:
If the November release is near the -40.5bn forecast, it would confirm the deficit narrowing and weigh on the dollar.
29 January, 16:30 / US / ** / Initial jobless claims (weekly) / prev.: 199k / actual: 200k / forecast: 205k / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down
Initial jobless claims rose by 1k to 200k for the week ending January 17, below expectations of 212k. Continued claims fell by 26k to 1.849m, below second?half?2025 levels but above pre?pandemic norms. The trend points to low layoffs and ongoing hiring amid a cooling labor market. Federal claims rose by 364 (to 1,010) due to the shutdown. If the weekly figure comes in near the 205k forecast, it would be dollar?negative.
29 January, 18:00 / US / *** / New orders growth (Nov)
New orders for goods in the US fell by 1.3% m/m in October 2025 to USD 607.4bn, offsetting +0.2% in September and broadly matching expectations of -1.2%. Orders for durable goods declined by 2.2% (to USD 307.3bn). Notable moves included:
Gains were seen in motor vehicles (+0.7%), fabricated metal products (+0.6%), and computers (+0.9%). If the November print comes in near the 1.6% forecast, it would confirm a rebound and support the dollar.
30 January, 02:30 / Japan / *** / Consumer inflation (Jan) / prev.: 2.8% / actual: 2.3% / forecast: 2.2% / USD/JPY – up
Tokyo's core inflation slowed to 2.3% in December 2025, down from 2.8%. The print was also below expectations of 2.5% but remained above the Bank of Japan's 2% target. Headline inflation fell to 2.0% (a one?year low). The BoJ raised the policy rate to 0.75%, a 30?year peak, signaling tightening. If the January reading comes in near the 2.2% forecast, this could weaken the yen.
30 January, 02:50 / Japan / *** / Industrial production (Dec) / prev.: 1.6% / actual: -2.2% / forecast: -1.3% / USD/JPY – down
Japan's industrial production fell by 2.2% in November 2025. If the December print is close to the -1.3% forecast, it would confirm a slowing downturn and support the yen.
30 January, 02:50 / Japan / *** / Retail sales (Dec) / prev.: 1.7% / actual: 1.0% / forecast: 0.7% / USD/JPY – up
Japan's retail sales rose by 1.0% in November 2025, marking the third consecutive month of growth and better than the 0.9% expectation. Support came from:
If December growth is close to the 0.7% forecast, this would indicate a further slowdown in sales and weigh on the yen.
30 January, 10:00 / United Kingdom / ** / Nationwide house price index (Jan) / prev.: 1.8% / actual: 0.6% / forecast: 1.5% / GBP/USD – up
The Nationwide house price index rose by 0.6% in December 2025, weaker than the 1.2% expectation and the 1.8% print in November. Prices are lagging incomes, rates are falling, and affordability is improving. The 2026 outlook is roughly 2-4%. If the January reading is close to the 1.5% forecast, it would confirm a recovery and back up the pound.
30 January, 10:00 / Germany / ** / Import prices (Dec) / prev.: -1.4% / actual: -1.9% / forecast: -2.6% / EUR/USD – down
Germany's import prices fell by 1.9% in November 2025, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline. The largest drops were in energy:
Manufactured and agricultural goods also softened. If December's decline approaches the -2.6% forecast, it would reinforce the trend and weigh on the euro.
30 January, 11:55 / Germany / *** / Unemployment change (Jan) / prev.: 1.0k / actual: 3.0k / forecast: 4.0k / EUR/USD – down
The number of unemployed in Germany rose by 3k in December 2025 (to 2.98m). The increase continued after +1k in November and was smaller than the +5k expectation. If the January print comes in near the +4.0k forecast, it will point to further deterioration in the labour market and put pressure on the euro.
30 January, 12:00 / Germany / *** / GDP growth (Q4) / prev.: -2.0% / actual: 0% / forecast: 0.2% / EUR/USD – up
Germany's GDP was flat in Q3 2025. Capital formation, government spending, and inventories offset consumption and net trade. If Q4 comes in near the +0.2% forecast, it would confirm a recovery in the euro area's leading economy and support the euro.
30 January, 13:00 / Eurozone / *** / GDP growth (Q4) / prev.: 1.6% / actual: 1.4% / forecast: 1.2% / EUR/USD – down
Eurozone GDP slowed to 1.4% in Q3 2025 from 1.6%, in line with estimates. Contributions came from:
If Q4 prints close to the 1.2% forecast, that would signal further slowing and weigh on the euro.
30 January, 16:00 / Germany / *** / Consumer inflation (Jan) / prev.: 2.3% / actual: 1.8% / forecast: 2.0% / EUR/USD – up
Germany's inflation slowed to 1.8% in December 2025. The reading was in line with forecasts and below November's 2.3%, and below the ECB's 2% target. If the January print is near the 2.0% forecast, it would confirm stabilisation and support the euro.
30 January, 16:30 / Canada / ** / GDP growth (Nov) / prev.: 0.2% / actual: -0.3% / forecast: 0.1% / USD/CAD – down
Canada's GDP in November 2025 (preliminary) rose by 0.1% m/m after -0.3% in October. Goods and services were weighed down by cheaper oil and gas. Growth was supported by:
Year?on?year growth in October was +0.4%. If the November print comes in near the 0.1% forecast, it will indicate a recovery and support the Canadian dollar.
30 January, 16:30 / US / *** / Producer inflation (Dec) / prev.: 2.8% / actual: 3.0% / forecast: 2.7% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down
US producer inflation rose by 3.0% in November 2025. The long?term average (1950–2025) is 3.07%. If the December reading is close to the 2.7% forecast, that would signal a slowdown and be dollar?negative.
30 January, 17:45 / US / ** / Chicago business barometer (Jan) / prev.: 36.3 / actual: 43.5 / forecast: 43.0 / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down
The Chicago business activity index rose to 43.5 in December 2025 from 36.3, beating expectations of 39.5. Nevertheless, the indicator remained below 50 for the 25th consecutive month. If the January reading comes in near the 43.0 forecast, it will confirm contraction and weigh on the dollar.
31 January, 04:30 / China / *** / Manufacturing PMI (Jan) / prev.: 49.2 / actual: 50.1 / forecast: 50.2 / Brent – up, USD/CNY – down
China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in December 2025, entering expansion for the first time since March. Strength was seen in:
However, export orders fell to -49.0. If the January reading comes in near the 50.2 forecast, it would support Brent and strengthen the yuan.
31 January, 04:30 / China / *** / Non?manufacturing (services) PMI (Jan) / prev.: 49.5 / actual: 50.2 / forecast: 50.3 / Brent – up, USD/CNY – down
China's non?manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in December 2025 from 49.5, beating the 49.8 consensus — the highest reading since August. Weakness was recorded in:
If the January print comes in near the 50.3 forecast, it will confirm improvement and support Brent and the yuan.
29 January, 15:00 / Eurozone / Speech by Sharon Donnery, ECB Supervisory Board / EUR/USD
30 January, 11:00 / Eurozone / Speech by Pedro Machado, ECB Supervisory Board / EUR/USD
30 January, 21:00 / Eurozone / Speech by Claudia Buch, Single Supervisory Mechanism / EUR/USD
31 January, 01:00 / US / Speech by Michelle Bowman, Fed Board / USDX
Also, several senior central?bank officials are scheduled to speak this week. Their comments typically trigger FX volatility as they may signal regulators' intentions on policy.
The economic calendar is available via the link. All indicators are shown year?on?year (y/y). Monthly series are noted as (m/m). Trade balance, exports, and imports are reported in the country's currency. The asterisk * denotes (in ascending order) the importance of the release for instruments available on the InstaTrade platform. Publication times are given in Moscow time (GMT+3:00). Open a trading account here. See also InstaForex market video news. To keep tools at hand, we recommend downloading the MobileTrader app.
