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24.07.2026 07:51 AM
The GBP/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Thursday, so to speak, "in company." The euro began to fall from the very morning without any grounds for doing so, and the British pound continued its decline, remaining in a downward trend. Thus, technically, we observed a completely logical movement. There is a trend line, there is a trend, and the price clearly adheres to it. By the end of the day, the British currency was near the 1.3301-1.3309 area, and the total correction from the last three-week rise amounts to 61.8% according to Fibonacci. Based on this, the correction may conclude today. There were no interesting events yesterday in either the US or the UK, and the European Central Bank meeting had no relevance to the pound. Moreover, the ECB did not make a dovish decision but instead showed a willingness to continue raising key rates in the future. Thus, despite the market's desire to sell the euro, there were no grounds for that yesterday. However, the euro is in a sideways channel, so its decline can be explained. The pound is in a downward trend, so its decline can also be explained. But in both cases, the downward trend should come to an end.
From a technical standpoint, the British pound continues its downward trend on the hourly timeframe, which is likely a correction against the upward trend on the 4-hour chart. The trend line supports the bears, but a consolidation above it will indicate a trend reversal. Additionally, the price is located below the Ichimoku indicator lines, which also indicates a downward trend.
On the 5-minute timeframe, two decent trading signals were formed on Thursday. During the European trading session, the price broke through the 1.3369-1.3377 area, allowing for the opening of short positions. In the American session, the 1.3301-1.3309 area was worked through, allowing profits to be taken on short positions and long positions to be opened, which can be held throughout today.
COT reports on the British pound show that for several months now, non-commercial traders have been dominating the market with sales. The net position is negative, despite the long-term upward trend. Given the events in the Middle East, it is not surprising that demand for riskier currencies remains weak. The war is formally over, but the conflict persists. Geopolitics can support demand for the US dollar in the near future. However, until a consolidation below the trend line occurs, we would not expect a strong decline in the pair.
In the long term, the dollar will continue to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, which is clearly visible on the weekly timeframe (illustration above). The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policies are directly and indirectly aimed at weakening the American currency. The long-term upward trend remains in place, evidenced by the trend line. The price recently worked through this line and bounced off it. According to the latest COT report (from July 14), the "Non-commercial" group opened 6,500 BUY contracts and closed 10,100 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 16,600 contracts over the week, which in no way affects the overall mood of professional players.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to correct after a three-week rise. The market continues to ignore geopolitics, and in recent weeks we have observed technical growth supported by weak inflation data in the US. After the completion of the current correction, it is quite possible to expect a resumption of growth in the British currency, based on the pair's movement within the sideways channel on the weekly timeframe.
On July 24, we identify the following important levels: 1.3042-1.3050, 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3301-1.3309, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671-1.3681. The lines Senkou Span B (1.3439) and Kijun-sen (1.3388) may also be sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss to breakeven once the price moves in the correct direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.
On Friday, the business activity indexes for the services and manufacturing sectors for July will be published in the UK and the US, and in Britain, there will also be retail sales figures. We do not consider these reports important, and the euro and pound have already completed their plan for decline. Thus, we expect an upward reversal, but technical factors will indicate where both pairs will move on Friday.
Today, traders may open new short positions targeting the 1.3179-1.3187 area if the price consolidates below the 1.3301-1.3309 area. Long positions can be opened in the case of a rebound from the 1.3301-1.3309 area, targeting the 1.3369-1.3377 area.
Support and resistance price levels are thick red lines around which the movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are considered strong lines.
Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price has previously bounced. They serve as sources of trading signals.
Yellow lines indicate trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts shows the size of the net position for each category of traders.
