Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The test of the 1.3353 price level occurred when the MACD had just begun moving downward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair fell by more than 30 points.

In the near future, investors and analysts will focus on the release of key macroeconomic data from the United States. Statistics on the change in non-farm employment are expected—one of the most sensitive indicators of the state of the U.S. economy. Growth in this indicator traditionally signals an expansion in business activity and a strengthening labor market, while a slowdown or decline may point to emerging problems.

At the same time, data on the unemployment rate will also be released. The dynamics of this indicator directly affect consumer spending and overall economic well-being. A decrease in unemployment indicates a healthy labor market where more citizens have stable income, which in turn stimulates consumption and investment.

In addition, speeches by two members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)—Mary Daly and Beth M. Hammack—will attract considerable interest. Their comments regarding the current economic situation, inflation trends, and the outlook for monetary policy will be closely analyzed for any hints about future FOMC decisions.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenario No. 1 and Scenario No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today I plan to buy the pound if the price reaches the entry point around 1.3342 (the green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.3381 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3381, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move downward from that level). A rise in the pound today can be expected after weak U.S. statistics.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.3319 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upward. Growth toward the levels 1.3342 and 1.3381 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3319 level is broken (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3285, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound from that level). Pressure on the pound will return today if U.S. statistics come out strong.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning its downward movement.

Scenario No. 2: I will also sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.3342 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward 1.3319 and 1.3285 can then be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – the estimated level where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, since further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – the estimated level where you can place Take Profit or lock in profits, since further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner traders in the Forex market should make entry decisions very carefully. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations.

If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you may quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.