The EUR/USD currency pair continued to oddly lean towards correction on Tuesday. It cannot be said that the European currency significantly improved its position by the end of the day, but for the second consecutive day, the market did not witness a rapid rise of the dollar. What does this mean? A temporary pause is the end of a local trend on the 4-hour time frame? A full reflection of the geopolitical factor by the market? A calm before a new storm? It is impossible to answer all these questions. As we have already stated, only Donald Trump knows how events in the Middle East will unfold, as he is the conductor.

However, Trump is increasingly finding himself having to maintain a good face in a bad game. The world is not blind; everyone understands that there are very few real reasons to start a war against Iran right now. The fact that Iran possesses nuclear weapons is as much a reason for war as the fact that China possesses nuclear weapons. Or that Russia possesses nuclear weapons. But for some reason, Trump is not in a hurry to attack Russia or China, as he understands well what the outcome would be. So perhaps the issue is not about nuclear armaments at all?

Let's recall that the formal justification for conducting a special operation in Venezuela was the fight against drug trafficking. And when the United States captured the country's president, Nicolas Maduro, it suddenly became known that all Venezuelan oil would now be controlled by American companies. So was it from the very beginning about oil and not about drug trafficking? If this is the case, then the attack on Iran, "the main peacemaker of the 21st century," also concerns oil issues and global dominance. Trump seeks to benefit himself and America from any situation. But America is no longer just a collective of Americans and the government. America is now the elite, who are allowed to do anything, the government, and ordinary workers, whom no one cares about.

Thus, those hundreds of billions of dollars that Trump continues to herald during every press conference... American citizens will neither see nor feel them. It's worth reminding that Trump brilliantly collected $150 billion in tariffs from his own citizens under the guise of the world's unfair treatment of America and the imposition of trade tariffs. The only ones paying these tariffs were Americans, not Europe or China. Thus, all the deals Trump signed represent hundreds of billions of dollars for the American treasury, not for programs like Medicaid. The war in Iran is about controlling oil, putting pressure on China, putting pressure on the European Union, and about money since the United States remains the world's leader in "black gold" production and, consequently, gains additional profit from selling its oil. It's all banal and simple.

All of this is beginning to be understood in Europe and other countries around the world that have worshipped America with closed eyes for decades. Now, for some reason, no one wants to side with the US in the conflict in the Middle East. Trump has struggled to attract two dozen countries to the "Council of Peace," most of which are hard to locate on a map. The world will inevitably form an "anti-American coalition."

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of March 18 is 88 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1451 and 1.1627 on Wednesday. The upper linear regression channel has leveled off, indicating a trend reversal. The CCI indicator has once again entered the oversold zone and formed a "bullish" divergence, but even technical signals are playing no role at the moment.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.1475

S2 – 1.1353

S3 – 1.1230

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.1597

R2 – 1.1719

R3 – 1.1841

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its decline, which no longer resembles a correction. The global fundamental background remains highly negative for the dollar. However, for several consecutive weeks, the market has focused only on geopolitics, making all other factors irrelevant. If the price is below the moving average, shorts can be considered with targets at 1.1451 and 1.1353. Above the moving average line, long positions remain relevant with targets at 1.1963 and 1.2085, but for this scenario, the geopolitical background must start to improve.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same way, then the trend is strong at the moment;

The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which to trade;

Murray levels – target levels for movements and corrections;

Volatility levels (red lines) – the probable price channel in which the pair will move in the upcoming day, based on current volatility readings;

The CCI indicator – its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250)- indicates that a trend reversal is nearing in the opposite direction.