China’s authorities have set an economic growth target for 2026 of 4.5–5.0%, Premier Li Qiang said at the opening of the National People’s Congress. The new target is the lowest in 35 years. In 2025, Beijing’s official goal was “around 5%,” and preliminary data indicate it was achieved.

The downward revision reflects a prolonged property sector crisis and weak domestic demand. External pressure on the world’s second-largest economy is rising amid growing geopolitical risks and threats to free trade. Li Qiang also pointed to structural problems, including an imbalance of excess supply and soft consumption, as well as labor market challenges.

According to a report from China’s Ministry of Finance, the 2026 budget deficit is planned at a record 4% of GDP, equivalent to 5.89 trillion yuan ($854 billion). Higher budget spending is linked to increased social benefits and the need for fiscal stimulus. Defence spending will rise 7% to 1.9 trillion yuan ($280 billion).

China’s long‑term strategy supposes doubling GDP per capita by 2035. To reach that goal, Beijing plans to accelerate the development of advanced technologies and strengthen its dominance in rare-earth supply chains. Goldman Sachs analysts expect China’s actual GDP growth in 2026 to be about 4.8%, supported by export recovery and state support.